Survivorship bias: the silent killer of strategic planning

Survivorship bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when people focus on the success stories of a group while ignoring the failures or less visible members.

• This bias can lead to an overestimation of the likelihood of success and an underestimation of the risks involved.
• One example of survivorship bias is in the stock market, where investors often focus on successful companies while ignoring those that went bankrupt. This can lead to an overestimation of the potential returns and an underestimation of the risks associated with investing in the stock market.
• Another example is in the field of medicine, where the success stories of patients who have recovered from a disease are often highlighted, while the stories of those who did not recover are not. This can lead to an overestimation of the effectiveness of a treatment and an underestimation of the potential side effects.
• It's important to be aware of survivorship bias in order to make more accurate assessments of a situation or decision. This can be done by looking at a larger and more diverse sample, and by considering both the successes and failures.

In conclusion, survivorship bias is a cognitive bias that can have a significant impact on how we perceive success and failure. By focusing only on the success stories, we may overestimate the likelihood of success and underestimate the risks involved.

To counteract this bias, it's important to look at a larger and more diverse sample, and to consider both the successes and failures. It's also important to be aware of this bias in all aspects of life, from decision making at work to personal relationships. By recognizing and addressing survivorship bias, we can make more accurate assessments and better decisions.